Official /r/fivethirtyeight Presidential Prediction Contest
On old reddit or mobile and looking for the polling megathread? Here it is
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Calling all data nerds, crosstab divers, poll unskewers, Lichtman lackeys, Selzer subjects, and Nate Silver critics!
We've seen all the polls, followed all the news, and now there's only one thing to do - vote if you haven't already!
Well maybe not just one thing. The time is now to post your predictions for the result of the Presidential election. You want bragging rights? You want to beat the polls, models, and pundits? Now is your chance.
This thread is being run in contest mode. That way everyone can upvote the predictions they think are particularly savvy and we can determine which prediction is most representative of the subreddit heading into Tuesday night.
What makes a good prediction?
- An electoral vote count (ex. Harris 269 - Trump 269)
- Gotta have that Electoral College map (it'll help you get your count right as well)
- A description of how the battle ground states (and any other states you think will unexpectedly flip and why. Bring your best data and analytics to the table! Anecdotes and vibes are welcome too of course.
- Just for a kicker include what time/date you think the winner will clinch the race.
Good luck!